Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures was a bull inside bar on the monthly chart. Inside bars, MA, triangles, think breakout mode (BOM) and sit on the hands until a clear entry sets up. Bulls might have a High 2 above the MA, but the bear channel is tight, and the first reversal might be minor. The bears want it to fail, and get a MM down to the 100 MA. Bears have struggled to get consecutive bear bars, which would be needed to get sustained selling low in this range. Expect sideways to up next month.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Monthly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures was a bull inside bar closing at the moving average and a small tail above.
- When a bar closes at the MA, the market agrees that the price is about right. For most traders, that means to wait for a breakout and a reasonable stop order entry.
- The bulls see a bull channel and a long-term trendline, and bears cannot get consecutive bear bars below the MA.
- The bears see a pullback, which has disappointed the bulls and is setting up a possible high 2 buy. They want this to fail.
- A High 2 buy is a reasonable buy signal in a trend. The question is whether this is trending or not.
- If you are unsure if it is a trend, then it is more likely a trading range.
- Bulls might buy the close and above, betting on a test of the highs of the range. But it is a bull inside the bar, so low probability.
- But the bar is small so likely we go above and below it before trending anywhere.
- The bears want the High 2 to fail and set up a measured move down. But in a bull channel, that is a low probability.
- The bears likely need a lower high to set up an LH DT and LH MTR (Major Trend Reversal.)
- The inside bar probability is about 50/50, so if we move from here, we will likely return soon.
- The bulls want a consecutive bull bar closing near its high and with a small tail above, also above the MA, to set up a better swing.
- Expect sideways to up next month.
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures market moved higher, with a bull outside bar closing on its high. We might gap-up on Monday.
- The market first triggered a sell below a weak sell signal before finishing above.
- Small bars have this habit – the bars following tend to test both areas.
- It is a buy signal for next week. But because bear bars are a kind of TTR, a triangle on a lower timeframe means it is also a test target. The BO can be short-lived before we come back to test the high.
- Nothing to sell here as no sell signals were triggered below either.
- We are also at the apex of a triangle on the HTF, so strong moves can fail, and weak signal bars can lead to trend bars.
- Most traders should be looking for stop entries, so a bull bar closing on its high above the MA is reasonable.
- The bears see a tight bear channel or at least a strong leg down a two-legged pullback to the MA. But their sell signal failed. This might mean they are trapped.
- The bears that got trapped might try and sell more to get below the low of that inside bar to exit breakeven. That could happen early next week before we go higher.
- Expect sideways to up next week.
- Most trading ranges force you to buy high and sell low, which is the opposite of what you want to do. Here you would be buying at nearly the top 1/3 of the range. So the R:R is not as good.
- Next 100 points is likely up so look for a buy signal on Monday / Tuesday.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
