Emini Support at 5,500 Round Number

Trading Update: Monday June 24, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini formed a doji bar last Friday after failing to break below Last Thursday’s weak bear bar.
• While the bears have managed to disappoint the bulls after the June 17^th bull breakout, the channel up is tight. This will increase the probability that the market will have to go sideways for several bars before the bears can get a reasonable chance of a second leg down.
• The bulls are hopeful that last Thursday’s outside down breakout is disappointing enough that there are buyers below it. Next, they want the market to exceed last week’s high.
• Since last Friday was a weak doji bar, buyers are probably below it, scaling in lower. This means that traders will look to see how the market responds to a test of its low if it gets there today or tomorrow.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The Globex market has gone sideways for most of the overnight session.
• The bears are trying to get a downside breakout below Sunday’s Globex session low, and the bulls want to prevent it.
• At the moment, the market is unlikely to get a large gap on the open. This will increase the odds of trading range price action on the open.
• As I often say, most traders will be better off waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade unless they are able to make quick decisions.
• Most traders should wait for the opening swing to develop, which often begins before the end of the second hour, after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.

Emini Intra-Day Update

• The Emini formed a bull trend from the open and a strong rally to bar 8.
• The rally to bar 8 is strong enough that buyers are likely below, even if the pullback is deep.
• The bears formed a reversal down to bar 12, and they are hopeful they will be able to cause the bulls to give up.
• It was reasonable to buy the close of bar 8; therefore, the market will probably have to test the close of bar 8 before the bears can get a credible reversal down.
• This reduces the probability of the bears getting a successful reversal down without a test of the bar 8 close first.
• The selloff down to bar 12 is strong enough that bulls who bought the bar 8 high close are disappointed and will probably look to exit on a test of the 8 close.
• If the bulls can get a strong rally during the test of the 8 close, that could increase the chances of the market breaking out above bar 8.
• At the moment, the pullback from bar 8 is enough to make the market a trading range and increase the risk of sellers around the bar 8 close.
• Bar 16 was good for the bears, however it is not enough to create a sell the close selloff. Bears likely exit above bar 17, too much risk of a Trading range and test of bar 18.
• Bar 27, the market is forming a tight trading range just below the bar 8 buy the close bar. The odds still slightly favor a test of the bar 8 close. However, every bar that goes sideways, makes the market close to 50% probability.

Friday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD sold off last Friday, testing the June 14^th low.
• The odds favored buyers on the retest of the June 14^th low, which increased the odds of a bounce and the bears becoming disappointed with last Friday’s selloff.
• The bull has done a good job today getting a rally.
• Next, the bulls need to demonstrate signs of strength by getting a strong bull close today.
• Ideally, the bulls would get follow-through buying tomorrow as well.
• Since the daily chart is in a trading range, the odds favor the bulls getting disappointed with either today’s bull close or the follow-through over the next day or two.
• The daily chart is likely in a trading range and has had three attempts down since the June 7^th selloff. This increases the odds of a reversal up and a sideways to up rally lasting at least a couple of days.  

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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