Emini Reversal below 5,400 Likely

Trading Update: Friday June 14, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini is beginning to go sideways after breaking above the 5,400 round number. However, the market is beginning to stall out. This is a warning that the rally up to the 5,400 is likely a bull leg in what will become a trading range.
• The bears do not mind the rally up to 5,400 as long as the market stalls near the round number and eventually reverses back down.
• The bears want to get a selloff down to the May 31^st low, which is the bottom of the most recent higher low.
• The Bulls want to prevent the market from falling below the May 31^st higher low. As long as the daily chart is making higher lows, the bulls can argue that the market is in a bull trend.
• The daily chart will probably begin to pull back over the next several weeks. The bears need to create more selling pressure to convince traders that the rally from the May 31^st low is an exhaustive buy climax.
• Traders will pay attention over the next several days to see what kind of selling pressure the bears can create.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 24 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The Globex market sold off during the overnight session and recently found buyers around 5,400 round number.
• Traders should expect the open to have a lot of trading range price action. There is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open up or down.
• This means the odds favor a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom forming on the open.
• Most traders should consider not trading during the first 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions since most breakouts fail on the open.
• Ideally, traders should focus on catching the opening swing that typically begins before the end of the second hour.
• Today is Friday, which means the weekly chart is important. The Bulls want to close the weekly chart above 5,400, ideally, above the week’s midpoint (5394,25). The bears want the opposite.
• Traders should be prepared for a potential surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide on the close of the weekly chart.
• Traders should pay attention to the 5,400 round number as it will probably remain a magnet for most of the day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD formed a second leg down after the June 6th bear breakout.
• The selloff is likely a bear leg in what will become a trading range.
• The bears should not have allowed the June 12th bull reversal bar. This will reduce the number of traders willing to sell below the June 11th low.
• At the moment, the bears are getting a decent entry bar following yesterday’s bear reversal bar closing on its low.
• The bears are hopeful that today’s entry bar will close on its low. However, today will likely disappoint the bears and have a tail below the bar.
• The market may test down to the May 1st bottom of the bull channel over the next few days.
• While the selloff is likely a bear leg in what will become a trading range, the bulls need to create more buying pressure if they get a successful reversal of the bear selloff. The most important thing to realize is that the current selloff is probably a bear leg in a trading range.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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