Emini Pullback Likely Over Next Few Weeks

Trading Update: Tuesday November 28, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini will likely pull back to the moving average over the next couple of weeks.
• The momentum is beginning to stall and the risk is getting big for the bulls.
• Since the market is in an overall trading range, the pullback could be deep and test down to the October 17^th high.
• Even if the market reaches the October 17 high, the odds will still favor the market reaching the September 1^st high, which is the top of the bear channel.
• The market can go sideways for several bars, dragging the moving average up to the current price level.
• The bears want the market to form a double-top bear flag with the September 1^st high. Next, they want a strong downside breakout and test of the October 27^th low. However, even if the market reaches the October 27^th low, the odds will favor buyers below.
• The bears need to begin to form bear bars, closing on their lows. This will increase the probability that bulls will begin to take partial profits, leading to a couple of legs sideways to down.
• Overall, the odds favor sideways trading over the next several months. Because the market is far away from the moving average, traders will likely hesitate to buy until the market gets closer to the moving average.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Because the daily chart is likely to get a pullback, there is an added risk that today will form a bear close on the daily chart.
• Traders will pay close attention to the open of the day.
• Today will probably have a lot of trading range price action on the open. This means most traders should wait for 6 – 12 bars before placing a trade unless they are comfortable with limit order trading.
• Most traders should wait for the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
• Traders should assume today will be a trading range day until there is a strong enough breakout with follow-through to make them think that a possible trend is underway.
• The market has been sideways in a tight trading range for the past couple of days. This increases the risk of a strong breakout and measured move of the recent trading range. If the market begins to form a strong breakout, closing beyond many bars to the left, traders must not be in denial of the breakout underway.

Emini intraday market update

• The Emini gapped down below yesterday’s low and went sideways for the first hour.
• The bulls formed a strong upside breakout during bars 14 and 15 that is strong enough for a second leg up.
• Bars 17-21 are disappointing follow-throughs following the bar 14 – 15 bull breakout. This will increase the odds of more sideways trading.
• At the moment, the odds favor price reaching the bar 15 close and the market getting a second leg up.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is continuing to rally following the November 14^th upside breakout.
• Although the bears have developed some selling pressure, they have not yet done enough to convince the bulls to exit.
• The market is approaching the 1.1000 round number, which will probably act as resistance and cause the market to go sideways for at least a few bars.
• The market is far from the moving average, increasing the odds of the market going sideways to down. This will allow the current price to catch up to the moving average, which reflects the average price.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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