Trading Update: Tuesday June 18, 2024
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Daily chart formed an upside breakout yesterday. However, it is coming late after consecutive buy climaxes since the May 31st low. This is consecutive buy climaxes which increases the odds of a pullback soon.
- The bulls are hopeful that yesterday’s breakout is strong enough for a second leg up.
- The bears want today to create bad follow-through, increasing the chances that yesterday is an exhaustive buy climax late in a rally.
- The bears need to create more selling pressure if they are going to get a reversal back down to the May 31st low.
- The odds are the best the bears can create is a tight trading range due to the rally up from the May 31st low being in a tight bull channel.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today=
- The Globex market has been in a tight trading range for most of the overnight session. The bulls expected yesterday’s rally to be strong enough for a second leg up.
- Because yesterday’s rally was climactic, the odds favor today’s open, having a lot of sideways trading.
- There is a 75% chance of at least two hours of sideways trading beginning before the end of the second hour. There is a 50% chance of follow-through buying on the open, followed by a 75% chance of a trading range.
- The market will probably try to test yesterday’s high to see what is above it.
- The bulls want today to become another bull trend day, which would create follow-through buying on the daily chart.
- More likely, sellers will be above yesterday’s high, and today will be a trading range day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Wow, how weak the discussions on al brooks’ blog and reports are. As they used to be good even in the encyclopedia, the level has dropped a lot.