Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a doji bull bar with a small body and a long tail below. It is more likely a breakout pullback below 7-29 low as it fell far enough below last week’s low even though it looks like a reversal bar.
On the daily chart, the market had big days on 4 of the 5 days of the week.
The monthly chart is a very big bar, with a sizable bear body but a big tail below. There are 3 more weeks left in the month, though it is not likely the range of the bar will extend beyond this week’s low. Bears would like to close the month near the low, while bulls would like the opposite.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bull doji bar with a small body and a long tail below.
- While last week’s report had said this week would likely be a doji bar around last week’s close, the market early Monday morning was a big bear trend bar far below last week’s low.
- This is a surprise, so likely there are more sellers above than buyers, and the market will make another attempt at the low of this week. Bulls will need a micro double-bottom (DB) at least.
- This week will likely behave like the week of 2-22-2022, which was followed by bear bars the following two weeks and the market fell below the low of the week of 2-22 (shown by the red shaded region on the chart).
- The question to ask here is – If a bull were to buy above this week, and put a stop below the low of the week, is it a 60% chance their stop gets hit before they make 1X? Yes, it is likely their stop will get hit. In which case, somebody buying here must go for 2X the Risk/Reward, and which is why there will likely be more sellers than buyers.
- Does that mean there couldn’t be a couple of bull bars above to the exponential moving average (EMA)? Possibly. It is possible, bears will wait till the weekly EMA to sell.
- Just like the 2-22-2022 bar though, there are likely more buyers below the low of the bar than above. The low of the bar is also close to the monthly EMA which should find buyers.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- This week had big days every day except Friday. Monday gapped down, went below the close of April 19th and ended the day with a big tail below.
- Tuesday found sellers above Monday high and ended the day as a doji bar around the top half of Monday. Wednesday was a bear outside bar closing near the low of Tuesday.
- Thursday was a big outside up bar closing just below Wednesday high. Friday was a bull doji follow-through bar, with a close above Thursday’s high.
- Thursday and Friday are enough of a surprise up that there should be a 2nd leg sideways to up.
- The report from a couple of weeks ago had said that there were a few open bull body gaps from the high of March that will likely close. Those closed last week.
- The next interesting bear target is the low close of April 19th. This was a bear micro-channel where the close of 4/19 bear bar was not sufficiently tested. It was tested on Monday before the regular trading hours.
- It is likely to be tested again during the regular trading hours, and a close below that close as well.
- The daily and weekly EMA are coming together again for the first time since October 2023. At this point, both the EMAs will likely be resistance at least on the first attempt up.
- Bears would like Monday to gap down and start its way down. Bulls want to take the market to the EMA whether by going up or sideways.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
