Market Video Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
Tim Fairweather’s weekly report on the FTSE 100 futures market.
FTSE 100 report transcript
Hi everyone. Welcome back to another Brooks Trading Course weekend market report. My name is Tim Fairweather and we’re going to go through the FTSE 100 futures. Let’s get to it. So last week on the FTSE 100 futures was a bear bar closing on its low. It’s basically a reversal bar after the prior week’s small inside bar.
It was a small bull bar above the moving average. So it was a reasonable buy entry. The problem is the context. On the left hand side, we’re in what looks like a bull breakout and still hasn’t gone up. And that creates a little bit of a problem because Where that buy signal is triggering is in the top third.
So you can see not a lot of bulls were willing to buy for any more than the scalp to close that gap. And a lot of traders were actually looking to sell up there, betting we would get back to the moving average. Now the bears have a sell signal, but probably what’s going to happen is the same that just happened with the bulls.
We’re going to go down a little bit and go sideways of the moving average. This tight trading range to the left hand side is going to be a magnet for the foreseeable future. What are the bulls need? Well, the bulls need an outside up They need this bear bar to trigger and to get a reversal and to create maybe one, two, three legs up.
So this would be another bull breakout. Bull spike and channel up to the all time high. The bears really need to follow through bar and it’s got to look really good. And it’s got to close on its low and it’s got to convince bulls to stop buying high on the monthly chart. We’re in a bull channel. And because we had a bull outside bar last month with a very small body and a big tail, It means that there’s gonna be more traders around the midpoint as opposed to buying above that bar for stop entry traders.
There hasn’t been that many trades apart from this bull spike in channel out of breakout mode, uh, which was a couple of months ago. In the last few weeks, it was mostly buying below a bull bar. Selling above a bear bar was the only way, and scalping we’re starting to form a triangle here as well. And in a triangle we’ve got a bull breakout and a wedge bull flag.
And we’ve got a bear breakout and a wedge bear flag at the same time. So it’s possible to be on a bull swing from down here. It’s possible to be on a bear swing from up here and your stops have still not been hit. And as long as no one stops have been hit, we’re going to keep going sideways. The bears had a good opportunity to close this gap down here, or unable to, so it looked like this was the measuring gap to go up.
The bull’s got a spike and a couple of pushes up. The bears would like this to be a breakout and a pullback, but unfortunately it’s gone way too high for the bears. They would have had to actually sell above that bar. And that’s going to be a problem. The bears want this bar to trigger down here, but if you’re selling here, you’re selling in the middle of a trading range and your stop is up where those other bears are.
I think a lot of bears are waiting for a strong close, a pullback, and then potentially
they keep running into a whole variety of possible trend lines. On the FTSE 100 daily chart, you can see that sideways titrating range. This is what it looks like when it’s been magnified. The bulls broke out of breakout mode here. The bears tried to reverse down from a double top with the all time high.
So it was a wedge to a double top, a dueling line patterns, but it failed. Instead, the bulls got a bull spike with a couple of legs up, and then we started to go sideways. This was a lot of high time frame profit targets on the daily chart. And they would have been going sideways in this range. Bulls tried to create a pullback one, two, three, they had three or four pushes down, but there’s just too many bear bars below the moving average here.
If this is going to be a strong bull breakout, the bulls really want to stabilize above the moving average. And then create the spike up here. But what’s happened is you’ve got a bull spike and a wedge bull flag. The bear’s got a bear spike and channel down, and we’ve been forming a trading range when bulls and bears both have an opportunity to be in the market.
You’ve got bulls buying down here that are still long. You’ve got bears that are selling up here who are still short. And the result is we’re sitting in the middle. And I think the longer term trend line is going to win, but it’s not easy for swing traders. Thanks. You can see a lot of traders here. If it goes in the bottom half, they’re buying.
If it goes in the top half, they’re selling. We get too far away from the moving average. They start fading it. We go too far below the moving average. They start buying. So last week we went up and closed the only open gap to the upside. And we did that earlier in the week and reversed. We did it twice.
Just to let all those traders out, uh, bulls have bought above this bar. We talked about last week, had a chance to get out. And now I don’t think there were many bulls that bought up there because it looked like this was a couple of legs up to let those bulls out. And now the bears have got the opposite.
They see this as a bear spike and one, two, three. Or a wedge bear flag looking for a second leg down. So they really need some follow through on Monday. This is forcing bears to sell low in a trading range. They really need follow through the same as the bulls were forced to buy high in that trading range, but it looks like the bears are going to get a second leg down from this right in the middle of this range.
So for FTSE, we’re still always in long on the monthly chart, always in long on the weekly chart, and in a trading range on the daily chart. I still think we’re going to be going sideways to up on the weekly chart, but it looks like the bears might get a second leg down on the daily. Thanks very much.
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Video+Transcript are much better. Thanks!