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EURUSD No Bull Follow-through Bar

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

EURUSD no bull follow-through bar on the weekly chart. Bulls hope that this is simply a pullback and want at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback. Bears want a reversal lower from a failed breakout above a wedge bear flag. They will need to create strong consecutive bear bars to increase the odds of a retest of the September low.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD No Bull Follow through Bar, Tight Bull Channel Up on Weekly Chart
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was bear doji with a long tail above.
  • Last week, we said that odds continue to favor the EURUSD to be in the sideways to up pullback phase and traders will see if the bull can get a least a decent follow-through bull bar next week. 
  • While this week traded above last week’s high, the EURUSD closed below it and the bulls failed to get a small bull body. The bulls did not get a follow-through bull bar.
  • The bulls hope that the recent 10-week trading range (July to Sept) is the final flag of the selloff. 
  • They got a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (May 13, July 14 and Sept 28) and a trend channel line overshoot. 
  • They want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range. Last week spiked up and closed slightly above the 7-year trading range low. This week closed slightly below it.
  • The bulls hope that this week was simply a pullback and wants at least a small second leg sideways to up.
  • Previously, the bulls kept failing to get sustained follow-through buying since 2021. 
  • The recent 4 consecutive bull bars are the longest streak since the selloff started in 2021. It is a change in the market’s character.
  • The bulls need to create more consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds that the selloff has ended. 
  • The bears want a strong breakout below the 2017 low, and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. This will take them to the year 2000 low.
  • The move down was in a tight bear channel. However, the bear trend has also lasted a long time and is climactic.
  • While the breakout below the July-August low in September was strong, the bears failed to get follow-through selling.
  • The bears hope the EURUSD is forming a failed breakout above a wedge bear flag (Oct 4, Oct 27, and Nov 11). 
  • They see the current move up as a breakout test of the 7-year trading range low.
  • They will need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of a failed breakout above the wedge bear flag. If next week trades higher, they want the EURUSD to stall and reverse lower again from a double top bear flag (with Aug 10, Jun 27 or May 30 high) or around the major bear trend line.
  • Since this week was a bear doji, it is a weak sell signal bar for next week.
  • The buying pressure in the last 8 weeks is stronger than the selling pressure, and the move up is in a tight bull channel.
  • The bears will need at least a micro double top or a strong bear reversal bar to increase the odds of a retest of the September low.
  • For now, we may see some profit-taking pullback, but odds continue to slightly favor the EURUSD to still be in the larger sideways to up pullback phase.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Weak FT, PB, Tight Bull Channel
  • The EURUSD traded higher on Tuesday but closed below last week’s high. Thursday broke below Wednesday inside bar, but the bears did not get strong selling. Friday was a bear inside bar closing near its low.
  • Last week, we said that the odds continue to favor the EURUSD to be in the sideways to up pullback phase. Traders will see if the bulls can create consecutive bull bars trading far above the 7-year trading range low or fail to do so.
  • While this week traded slightly higher, it was mostly sideways.
  • The bulls want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range. 
  • They hope that the recent 10-week trading range pullback (July to Sept) is the final flag of the move down which started in February. 
  • The bulls got a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (May 13, July 14 and Sept 28) and trend channel line overshoot following a sell climax.
  • Since 2021, they were not able to create sustained follow-through buying. However, the current spike up is a change in the market’s character. 
  • The bulls manage to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs breaking far above the small trading range, the bear channel and above the 1.00 Big Round Number.
  • They hope that the market has flipped into Always In Long.
  • The move up from Nov 3 higher low major trend reversal is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback. This remains true.
  • The bears want a breakout and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. That would take them to the year 2000 low.
  • They want a retest of the September low followed by a strong breakout with follow-through selling. 
  • They hope the current move is forming a double top bear flag (Aug 10 or Jun 27 or May 30).
  • The bears see the recent spike up as a buy vacuum of the 7-year trading range low breakout point.
  • Friday was an inside bar. That means the EURUSD is in breakout mode. Because it is a bear bar closing near the low, a downside breakout is slightly more likely.
  • The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time.
  • For now, the move up from Nov 3 is in a tight bull channel. That increase the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.

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