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Emini Election Day for United States

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Trading Update: Tuesday November 5, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Today is Election day for the United States. This increases the risk of more volatility over the next couple of days.
  • The Emini formed a doji bar yesterday after failing to close below last Thursday’s low. This is a sign of weak selling pressure and increases the odds of a pullback soon.
  • Last Thursday (October 31st) was a strong enough surprise to make the market Always In Short. However, the risk for the bears is that October 31st is a 2nd leg trap, with October 23rd being the first leg down.
  • At the moment, it looks like the market is going to test up to the October 23rd low and 5,800 round number.
  • The bulls are hopeful that today will be a strong reversal bar closing on its high. This would increase the risk of more bears exiting shorts disappointed by the lack of momentum after the October 31st bear breakout.
  • Because October 31st is a second leg down in a likely trading range, fewer bears will be willing to scale into shorts above bars. This is because trading ranges often reverse after 2nd and third legs down.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a small gap up on the open and a large breakout bar on bar 1. This was a strong enough breakout to increase the odds of a second leg up, and the Bulls got a strong rally up to bar 6.
  • Bar 6 is climactic, which increases the odds of a pullback lasting a couple of legs.
  • As of bar 6, the odds favor either a bull trend or a trading range and not a bear trend day.
  • The rally up to bar 6 is a strong enough breakout that the odds favor a second leg up, even if the market gets a pullback lasting a couple of legs first.
  • While the rally is good for the bulls, it is becoming climactic and getting far from the moving average.
  • The moving average is a reflection of the fair price. The further the price gets away from the moving average, the less traders are going to be willing to buy without the market getting closer to the average price. This means that the market may begin to go sideways and drag the moving average up to the current price.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Top Then Sell Climax and Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is trying to get close above the daily moving average. While the Bulls have done a good job, it would be better if they could get consecutive closes above the moving average. That would increase the odds that the market is Always In Long and will go higher.
  • The bears hope they will be able to halt the buying pressure. This would increase the odds that the rally up from the October low is a bull leg in what will become a trading range.  
  • The Bulls need to do more to convince traders to buy above the moving average. This means that traders will pay close attention to see what kind of buying pressure today or tomorrow forms.
  • More likely, the bulls will become disappointed over the next couple of days.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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