Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures went lower last week with an open breakout gap and BOM after a strong bull spike. TTR is also on the lower time frame, so it is time for the next pattern to start with a good breakout. But traders should wait for a BO and FT before looking for stop entries. Limit order traders only right now. A wedge pullback to the MA is a strong, long setup if there is a good signal bar.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went lower last week in a tight trading range and an open breakout gap.
- The bulls see a strong bull spike and a big breakout distance above the prior trading range.
- The bears see a higher time frame broad channel with closed breakout gaps and are trading to close them.
- The bears have too many bear bars now, so we probably won’t go much higher without pulling back.
- The bears want a second leg down but a TTR above support and the MA and the breakout point, is a bad place to sell below.
- The bears need to get back below the MA- but I put their 1:1 target on the chart, the gap close. No one holding short yet for a swing.
- The strong bull bars that kicked off the move are still in play, and I suspect the bulls will keep holding for more.
- Traders expected two legs sideways after a parabolic wedge. That pullback is about to end and now they likely expect trend resumption.
- The pain trade would be the endless pullback to the bottom of the bull spike—probably 30% at best.
- It’s still always in long, but the always-in traders probably exited after a few bear bars and will look to buy a good buy SB around the MA.
- We have had a good High 1 that triggered, so now we just need a good High 2.
- It could fail and keep going sideways, but it was difficult for the bears to scalp already, so it is unlikely they will hold for more.
- Expect sideways to up next week.
The Daily FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went lower on Friday with a small bull doji below the MA.
- Its breakout mode, BOM, has had more than five reversals, and with the 200 MA sloping up, I’ll give it to the bulls to lose.
- I marked some 1:1 targets for bears, scalping only, which keeps the market reversing at the MA.
- We are at the bottom of that bull spike, and bears want to break it and get a measured-move down. But they need to do more to convince me.
- More likely a failed bear bar below or a gap close and then a strong bull reversal.
- Bears see a possible wedge bear flag and second leg down.
- However, wedge patterns to the 200MA are great reversal setups, and many bulls (myself included) will look to buy them.
- A trading range so BLSHS and take quick profits.
- Bears would ned consecutive strong bear days next week for me to change my mind -anything else id probably a sell climax and a better reversal setup.
- Bulls are not losing money in this range and the bears probably have to trap them in.
- But they all have a wide stop and will buy more at the breakout point.
- It might be forming a cup and handle pattern.
- The reversal down was surprisingly strong, so a spike and channel bear trend are expected. However, there have been at least three legs and nested wedge bottoms now, so it is time for the next pattern.
- Expect sideways to up next week.
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